Explosive cyclogenesis is the rapid genesis of a storm. Or, to put it another way, a low pressure system that quickly turns into something much meaner. Talking specifics a storm can be categorised as having explosive cyclogenesis if the central pressure drops more than 24 mb in 24 hours. This is what happened with the recent explosion of Storm Barra.
What factors cause explosive cyclogenesis?
There are a few things that need to happen for explosive cyclogenesis to occur.
- A strong upper airstream, pumping energy into the atmosphere at the surface. See this article on the Jet Stream here.
- Two weather systems merging.
- A strong gradient in the sea surface temperature along the path taken by the storm
The question is: will climate change affect our weather – particularly wind strengths – and see us experiencing more storms such as the recent Storm Barra? It might surprise you to learn that confidence in this is low. Based on studies conducted by the Met Office an increase in general wind speed over the UK isn’t expected to be significant. See the following quote.
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UKCP18 projected an increase in near surface wind speeds over the UK for the second half of the 21st century for the winter season when more significant impacts of wind are experienced. However, the increase in wind speeds is modest compared to natural variability from month to month and season to season, so confidence is low.
Rising sea level concern.
More concerning is climate change affecting rising sea levels which will cause more floods. This means storms will have more of an impact having hit due to damage occurring from things like surges.
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So back to the original question, and explosive cyclogenesis is a weather phenomenon that can happen regardless of climate change. But the effects of climate change will be compounded as and when these storms materialise. In terms of how this winter will pan out, as far as storm activity goes, we can only wait and see. Keep your eyes peeled to meteorological forecast data and you may spot another explosive cyclogenesis event soon.
Click here to read the full Met Office article about extreme weather wind storms.